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What's Up in the Tropics with Mark Sudduth – August 3, 2022: Why Is East Pacific So Busy?
There is increasing signal for the GFS and the Euro over the next week. Could be a sign the 🧢 is about to come off.
I'm not too concerned about anything in the Pacific.
Regardless of how bad people think tropical systems are they do bring beneficial rain to the people that are desperate need
I'd just like to put a wild card on the table – the Tonga eruption in January. It was of a size which rivals Krakatoa, and in the class of others which disrupted weather patterns for years afterwards. If it does prove a bust – and the forecasts a fortnight forwards still persistently show no sign of activity in the time frame Mark's talking about – then this too might be worth considering as a factor. NASA's only just given the first estimates of the effect on the albedo, and it might suggest energy delivery this year will be abnormally low, accounting for the dearth of cyclonogenesis. As ever, you pays your money and you takes your pick.
I thought, a week back. Storms work because of temperature differences, and if you only find them at height, then the ocean input's missing.
will the east pac die down once the AL picks up?