Will Aussie housing crash 70% like Japan? #housingmarket

23 Comments

1. Geopolitics, Food, Pandemics and War are going to have effects that may well stifle the "Flood" of migration the thieves selling us out are hoping for, for example Chinese citizens cant leave China anymore, not even the rich are able to buy themselves out this time.
   What are house prices going to be worth when theres limited or no fuel, food and hostile fleets roving your coastline?
   We arnt in Kansas anymore ie the World has changed and we are going to pay the penalty for allowing thieves that know nothing other than constantly jacking the prices up on cardboard boxes to run the show.

2. It is no fault of immigrants themselves, but the fact Govts use immigration to kick the can down the road & ignore the problems they & their financiers created, prevents the housing shortage being solved.

3. My property has increased by 90% in 3 years but it cost me a new fence and a new roof

4. 'RBA modelling' must be done best economists, I guess they may assume down trend will start 2024 after hitting 3% cash rate.

5. Kind of sad if a country depends on immigration to prop up the market. To help who? People who managed to get investment properties when it was more affordable. I wouldn't say that was governing in the Australian peoples interest, at least not their children's. Many of these immigrants are very wealthy, Ordinary young Australians can not compete on many levels. We will end up with tent cities in 20 years like the USA.

6. no will get better

7. You underestimate the ridiculous lengths government will go to intervene in the only market in the cuntry

8. It wont happen until ALL the politicians have sold up … Australia needs a labour force to re establish manufacturing just for our own markets . Everything you buy thats imported sends 65 cents in the dollar off shore . Negative Gearers dont develop they buy prime properties and sit on them creating a dead investment … Keeping in mind Asians save every cent they can …

9. Its game over for a lot of people. I have a feeling that in the not too distant future , people will be living in a house ,up to a two hour drive from the Sydney C.B.D . Kind of explains the government wanting to put in high speed rail. . It only puts a band aid over a shot gun wound .

10. This rates hiking only get started, it’s just time to test Australian economy resilience.

11. No , it is going to keep Inflating , in 10 years the price will be $10,000,000 , Average home prices , IMHO .
    So Buy Buy Buy , Max out your Loans , Quick , Before you miss out .
    The interest rate would have to go up to 12% or more to drop our Housing Market to -70%

12. Japan's key problem is demographic decline. Australia has the opposite demographic problem – too many immigrants. It could be argued that both situations are being handled poorly, although Australia's situation will probably turn out worse.
    Japan has made the choices to remain monocultural and not to open the floodgates to mass immigration, which has demographic implications, and maybe it will turn out that they've handled that in the best way possible despite the market turmoil.

13. Sorry selective immigration please based on skills shortage..our hospital systems are on their knees and roads are in gridlock…send them Qld if you want them…

14. The government can't bail out property again-they simply don't have the money and can't debase the dollar anymore, the tide has turned with the biggest interest rate rise in 22 years. And migration cannot save it either as its already 50% overvalued based on brainwashed locals FOMOing. Governments over the past 15 years have done a massive disservice to the current and future generations of this country, this crash is the only thing that can save it.

15. I love Japan, cheaper than Australia

16. Very few ppl understood QE. But will quickly understand the concept of QT

17. Allan K isn't a fool and his opinion carries weight however he's human and will make mistakes. As you mentioned, Japan has both a declining natural population and is a homogenous society and has almost 0 immigration making declining demand a permanent feature. Aus, also has a declining natural population but we are a very attractive destination for immigrants and importantly for immigrants who can afford houses.

    JCB's interest rate intervention before the 'lost decade' was really more about currency management than overvalued assets but that was kind of part of the picture

    plenty of people in their 40s and up, could see a rate rise coming, a very large block of the current demand for housing is from people in their 20s. the last time a rate rise happened they were probably just entering high school. Sure they would have heard of this thing called rate rises but until they feel it, it is only an abstract concept.

    if it follows the last cycle, the frothy period will end, the government will intervene with some packages to help soften the decent and then it will be a flat and sideways market for most of the next decade. best time to buy again will be 8 years from now.

18. In many areas, we can only just keep up with the population we have now. Roads, health care, power and water availability etc.
    When we all have to drive an electric car, how will we generate enough energy for a 30 or 40 million populace?

19. Immigration does prop up property but ultimately if interest rates are higher, borrowing capacity is lower. At least until they find a way to cheat us out of that particular constant.

20. Well the simple truth is, if the government doesn't intervene, it will crash. How much? I have no idea.

21. Housing won’t fall that much, the government can’t let it as the debt is reliant on high asset pricing. We don’t have a manufacturing industry to take the fall, all we have is finance and mining outside of housing.

22. I'm living in Japan, you're spot on about the differences at the start!

23. The only shock is that they kept interest rates so low for so long.

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