Today, we are going to explore Markiplier’s second playthrough of the first FNAF game, but this time, I am going to focus mainly on Bonnie, the dude who literally ruined Mark’s run because of his absurd RNG
However, since he also got Golden Freddy encounter on night 3, Bonnie’s insane RNG sequence turned this into one of, if not the most LUCKIEST FNAF PLAYTHROUGH in history, and I mean it, I haven’t seen any other videos or footage of someone having a playthrough with an RNG sequence as crazy as Markiplier had over here
This was one of the more fun videos I have ever made, because back then I was so confused and fascinated by how and why Bonnie throws Mark off like that, but growing up, and learning a little bit more math, I can share my knowledge and explain what Bonnie did exactly to bully Mark so badly!
Hey, if you are still reading, this is my second video where I use my voice to speak, I know that my accent is weird, but I am trying my best to make it sound good, so you guys don’t get confused, for extra measures, this video has manual English subtitles made by me in case there are some parts you can’t understand my voice properly
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*CLARIFICATIONS*
The first binomial probability DOES NOT AFFECT THE REST OF THE PROBABILITIES AFTERWARDS
The second probability (Bonnie hitting 3 moves in a row) ALSO DOES NOT AFFECT THE REST OF THE PROBABILITIES AFTERWARDS
– At 10:30, I mentioned overflow, but didn’t explain what the engine does afterwards. 100000 in a 16‑bit space (65536) overflows to 34464. The engine then approximates this against the 65536 divisor. In practice, 1/34464 is closest to 2/65536, which simplifies to 1/32768. That’s why Golden Freddy’s true chance is 1/32768 per second. For a deeper dive, see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcPfQFBwzfU
The “1 in 153,077,761,418 chance” in the video comes from multiplying Bonnie’s absurd RNG chain by Golden Freddy’s per‑second odds, which is just instantaneous framing
But if you want a session-accurate math, we use the entire video, so Mark plays across three nights, so we apply the formula: 1 – (1 – 1/32768) ^ duration
1. Night 2 (where Bonnie’s assassination plan killed him): 509 seconds, so that’s around 1.54%
2. Night 2 again (the winning run): 535 seconds, but we will be using 534 because he cannot appear at the last second of the night, so that’s around 1.62%
3. Night 3 (Golden Freddy appeared 73 seconds into the night): 73 seconds, so that’s around 0.223%
Given the exact windows in Mark’s footage, the chance of seeing at least one Golden Freddy in those segments is about 3.4%
For Bonnie, I should have taken a broader perspective. I didn’t take into account that Bonnie has multiple opportunities for that 1 in 4.67M action to occur. It can happen on any of the three nights
But imagine if we keep 1 in 4.67M from Bonnie, the exact sequence in the video (Bonnie’s early aggression – 2 minutes camping – Golden Freddy encounter) has approximately 1 in 136M chance, not an accurate number, but it tells that it’s way more common than what the video says, and this is where I figured out the biggest flaw with all my calculations, I neglected so much factors, this was my first time approaching statistics, but that doesn’t excuse what I did
Does this make the comparison with Backseat Streams irrelevant? Maybe
I would say that it’s a different metric. Backseat’s calculation is solid for his event because he uses multi-night totals, this one analyzes the rarity of a single, footage-conditioned moment
So if we’re talking pure Golden Freddy odds, then Backseat wins
However, Markiplier’s run still has something uniquely legendary (such as Golden Freddy appearing at 87% power, perfect timing that fits bite of 87), and also things like giving Yellow bear the name that we all know (Golden Freddy)
People are right to believe that the comparison is unfair, and I agree, both are rare, but they’re rare in different ways
Overall, I believe that my math is much more accurate this time, but still not perfect, and doesn’t excuse anything, however I believe even if all the maths are wrong, I think the strength of this video is that it shows the funny Bonnie moment Markiplier had. I think that’s what most of us came here for, but still, this has been a learning experience for me to dive deeper into the technical stuff. Thanks for all the criticism!
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Music used (in order):
1. Freddy Fazbear’s Pizzeria Simulator – Just Add Water
2. FNAF Ultimate Custom Night – Hibernating Evil
3. Freddy Fazbear’s Pizzeria Simulator – 240 Bits Per Mile
4. D1 – I still feel as though I am me
Video Chapters:
0:00 – Intro
0:14 – Beginning of the video
0:39 – Bonnie’s suspicious RNG sequence
1:50 – How Bonnie’s AI works
2:13 – Analyzing Bonnie’s sequence
6:02 – The moment that we all know
8:43 – Aftermath of Bonnie
9:26 – Golden Freddy??
10:12 – Golden Freddy’s chance
10:43 – The big number reveal
11:39 – Extra information
12:25 – Closing thoughts / Outro
source
I made clarifications in the description for some mistakes and miscalculations on my end
Just a heads up, my calculations and my presentation of Markiplier's footage being the "Most luckiest playthrough" is misleading because what I calculated is essentially just the chances for "this exact sequence" to happen. I apologize for not being able to properly math the RNG sequences in the video, a lot of hindsight bias from my end.
However, the video is still VERY USEFUL because it teaches you how Bonnie AI works and many other things, such as showing how Bonnie actually moves to the office and correcting Golden Freddy's chance due to some engine quirks (remember this all happened when Markiplier just bought the game for full price)
This doesn't excuse my wrong calculations however, I am not happy that I messed up this much about the odds calculation, and I hope that my future technical breakdown will be more careful, because I don't want to make the technical side of the fandom angry that I got many things wrong here, hope you guys can understand
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Here are some other things that I forgot to highlight in the video:
1. He got Golden Freddy encounter at 87% power, the timing is crazy because Golden Freddy somehow predicted Mark screaming “WAS THAT THE BITE OF 87?!?!?!” in his FNAF4 playthrough
2. He was the first to witness Golden Freddy, and accidentally saved himself from getting jumpscared by putting on the monitor
3. Bonnie becoming conscious and mauling Markiplier tells us a lot about why Scott had nightmares about Bonnie
4. Bonnie died swimming
Anyways, one more thing to note is that Markiplier's new movie Iron Lung is going to drop out early next year, remember, while Markiplier's playthrough was extremely rare, don't treat any giant numbers you see in this video as evidence for Markiplier's run being the "luckiest in history", it was just made for fun at the end of the day and highlights a lot about Bonnie's interaction (still, sorry to real statisticians)
Edit: I saw Iron Lung, I rated it 7/10, some flaws but overall a pretty good cosmic horror movie, that's all you need to know from me
this guy is insanely smart and he uses his intelligence to talk about a person playing a funny bear game
holy shit bonny was a fucking asshole at night 2 lmao
this would be more common than winning the lottery 🤣🤣
bro speaks in hur hur hur hur
Chat remember there’s only 8B people on earth so
For some reason your voice reminds me of that "What kind of fruit is this" AI
I have a question. Me and my friend were playing night four (fnaf 1) and by the time the guy on the phone was… gone😅 foxy came through our door and we had to restart. Are we stupid and that’s normal? Or was that lucky?
no sabia que necesitaba ver este video hasta el dia de hoy
So what you're saying is that if he was to open a csgo case he would have gotten a karambit blue gem.
holy shit why were bonnie’s eyes enraged that shit looked terrifying
i’ve never seen bonnie’s eyes like that, and at that the screen flash such a insane gameplay
such a W video keep up the good work legend ❤
bro has NEVER heard of a distribution other than binomial 😭
This is actually awsome! How did you figure this out? I would not have the patients to do this congrats man this is actually amazing.
"The video starts out with Markiplier's intro, as usual, and, now that he bought the full game (g'day mate)"
“freddie gains nothing, because he is obese” 😂
Your voice is a travesty
this seems like nothing more than the sharp shooters fallacy tbh
Bros got the 3yr old accent
i feel like i would understand more in the class of albert einstein
Bro speaks fnafamatics
H
my goat
It's my first time seeing his face like that 6:28
Did you include the part where the “it’s me” pops up
If I took statistics, I would understand less
i love how the hair strand is just a thing now
One time my school found an unblocked website and it had FNaF on it and on my 4th play through I got golden Freddy. I got a screenshot of it actually! It’s still on my iPad to this day 😂
Dude where are you from? You sound like you're from thailand
If only he used this luck on a cs crate
mark used all his luck in a fnaf playthrough instead of buying a lottery ticket 💔
Please get an AI voice (just kidding, great vid)
im not even that into fnaf but this is actually still insane to me
i even thought to myself in the past if he could have even been the very first person to encounter golden freddy, let alone just on a recorded video..
2:27 ÆÆÆ
Well damn Bonnie.
0:00 what typa fnaf oc is this 😭✌️