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Why did Russia miscalculate so badly in its invasion of Ukraine? The answer is more than two decades in the making. Putin’s Persistent and intentional decay of Russia’s institutions made it impossible for Russia’s intelligence community and military to provide quality information to him. Facing the uncertainty—and wagering that it would take a true disaster for it have a deep effect on him personally—Putin pulled the trigger.
0:00 Introduction
2:01 Putin’s Rise to Power
4:54 The FSB Sets the Stage
6:11 How Would the West Respond?
10:20 How Resolved Was Ukraine?
13:59 The Military’s Optimism
19:35 Pravda (The Truth)
25:27 Putin Pulls the Trigger
26:32 Russian Success Was Plausible
26:55 Bad Luck
29:05 Lack of Blowback
30:43 The COVID Pandemic
31:24 Putin’s Illness
35:19 Easter Eggs
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0):
From President.gov.ua:
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/vizit-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-institucij-yes-i-nato-u-bryusse-2953
From Government of Ukraine:
https://tinyurl.com/bdhajpmt
https://tinyurl.com/2sefhpf9
From Kremlin.ru:
http://20.kremlin.ru/en/2000
http://putin.kremlin.ru/bio/page-3
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/4/photos/5
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/13424
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/UA/events/19852
http://kremlin.ru/news/20604
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/34033
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/39202
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/43928
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/43958
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46507
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49718
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52820
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52948
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54430
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55063
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56997
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57213
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57416
http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/58065
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58502
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59455
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62096
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62325
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/55/events/62565
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/55/events/62562
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63054
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66327
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66762
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67118
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67514
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67734
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67825
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68254
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68605
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69088/
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69101
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69288
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69308
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69309
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70314
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70315
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70338
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70341
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70358
From Duma.gov.ru:
http://duma.gov.ru/multimedia/photo/77028/
From government.ru:
http://services.government.ru/press/photos/
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0):
From RIA Novosti:
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#100306
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#58833
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644461
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644465
Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0):
From Minister-President Rutte:
Media licensed under GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Commons:GNU_Free_Documentation_License,_version_1.2):
From Dmitriy Pichugin:
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Russia—Air/Kamov-Ka-50/0920728/L/
source
Small correction at 19:22: The fall of the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan occurred in 2021, not 2022.
And 26:16 is “Siberia”, not “Serbia”. Though I do wonder if a hypothetical ice fisher in Serbia is also aware of Russian corruption.
A boring historical review of the Ukraine war that lacks any worthy analysis. I give this one a Thumbs down. Its a "YouTube" production video for numbers of videos and a diversion from reality.
Putin's {Sic} Stupid!
Plaaain & 'Simple!'
Great commentary! Putin keeping a great distance from others remind me of someone not only paranoid but immune deficiency either due to disease but more likely medical therapy. I do say Parkinson's is what I would say from what I have seen. They talk about confusion, dementia, paranoia, forgetfulness as symptoms.
President Putin is a genius. Can't wait to see what happens when China steps in.
Lmfao.
Even if Putin had been able to travel and inspect the state of the military by himself, he wouldn't have been able to spot the cracks. For security reasons, his path would have been restricted and, on that path, everything would have been 120% perfect, the flowers would boom in January, there would not have been any belly-blown officer, except his generals, and lovely chicks in uniforms would wave their hands to the Motherland's Supreme Leader. I'm not imagining things, when it was announced that Ceausescu would make a visit, along his planned path suddenly fruits would start to grow in trees, the grass was greener and the road was smooth. Well, the fruits were tied in the trees, nobody would care if a poplar had apples, the grass was painted green and 500 m of an otherwise hole-filled road had a fresh layer of asphalt.
When there is no real negative feedback as a consequence of bad behavior, it's much easy to be lazy about your job all year round except one week when you're crazy, than to be a responsible person the whole year. Especially when everybody around you feels and acts the same.
And I'm not worried about Russia suddenly changing its ways overnight. Such a paradigm shift would require generations to be buried.
Wow. 40 minutes passed very quickly
This is not the story of Putin's miscalculation, this is the story of autocracies miscalculations, where the autocrats surround themselves only with yesmen
Have you ever done voice overs for South Park?
Goes to show you that KGB-Putin-Russia's word means nothing.
A bully only steals when there is no!!! Consequences!!!
Putin isn't fighting against Ukraine anymore. Putin's war is against the US and the west.
Yea, no lines on maps!
Oh, nearly. I spoke too soon. 😉
Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
Brilliant yet Concise Analysis:)
Stop instigating a war. What’s the end game for Ukraine?We know they will never win Russia
Thx for upload – I think that moon face does not refer to the craters on the moon but that the shape of the face becomes more round…
Putin is King. Zelensky is a clown. It's that easy
What Ukraine? You mean the Nazi pigs Z
You forgot the 15000 killed russian minorityes un the east of Ukrain from 2014.
It wa
Putin is fit and sane but his soc is mad
… all because Russia’s Czar model ( DICKtatorship ) is a pay-to-play Ponzi scheme.
Destroy The Czar, Russia heals.
🇺🇦
The problem is in the framing of the video at the beginning. THis is not a war for profit. It isnt a war to seize grain fields, oil fields or factories. The objectives Russia has in mind are priceless. A western border with more favorable geography for defense as the country itself continues into decline. We have seen leaks of plans to invade Moldova, a poor country with no economic value for this reason.
It's a negative side effect of American world view that everything has to be done for dollar profit motive but that's not how political decisions actually work.
Great video. I think you missed out one cause, the debacle in Afghanistan. I'm sure Putin saw this as weakness in Biden's leadership that would prevent the USA from mounting a serious response to the invasion of Ukraine.
I think Putin is the smartest politician right now, he took Crimea right from under America's nose when NATO wanted to build a base there in 2014, after the overthrow of the president of Ukraine, then when Merkel and Scholts said they were not going to implement the Minsk agreements, he acted one step ahead. Putin promised Russian-speaking Ukrainians support, and he kept his word. I think there is no stronger politician in the world than Putin.
This is my personal opinion.😊
Why fail to mention the Ukranian/Nato trained and equiped forces that built up on the border ready to strike? Not relevant to the narrative? 8 years from 2014 and the installation of a western government?
Do azzholes really need a reason to miscalculate?
Putin's Russia has officially climbed to number one pariah among worst of world nations, leading: China, North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Myanmar, Syria, Belarus and several others.
A leader who does not want to hear bad news, has finally to experience those bad news.
Hmmmn indeed! Great production. Interesting, thought provoking and good narration. Impressive.
Very good