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43 Comments

  1. LOL We've never had inflation as high as right now either. The housing market is going to tank as inflation destroys the economy. Just wait and see ….

  4. I completely agree with your assessment of this situation. There are several factors involves and we have come to a point of no return. Real estate is dving Inflation is destroying the essence of our country. Food is becoming rare and more expensive. Fuel will soon become a choice over necessity because of the price. Jobs are being lost in record number. And the threat of another World War looms as a clear and present danger. We have a President who sweeps all this aside and continues to think all is rainbows and sunshine. This collapse will thin out the herd and last for a long long time

  5. GREAT EVALUATION!!! As much as I want prices to drop, it won’t be 2008 again. Housing inventory expansion and bankruptcies just aren’t happening again like they did 2008.

  7. In my area (Delray Beach, FL) Homes that sold on the summer and fall of 2021 are now being listed for 100-300 percent more.

    And some homes have already been flipped twice (yes twice) in 2022.

  8. Think of of this way if the housing market crashes banks, mortgage companies realtors and loan officers are screwed. A housing crash is not good for the economy !

  10. Hard asset lockdown and freeze. Inventory goes to zero, no one sells. Home prices are primarily driven by land prices which are driven by inflation and currency collapse. Aside from outlier distressed situations, the market never sells land at a loss PERIOD END. Nothing is coming down in any significant way. God said in Revelation "Days wage for a loaf of bread, and don't touch the wine and oil (that's for the elites)"… He meant it and always keeps his word.

  14. I think that your assessment on overall affordability is far too general. The youtubers that are making crash predictions are being specific to different regions, where the average clearly does not apply. If you are in the Seattle market, the affordability metric falls completely out of the metric you mention. Also the future prospect of a recession, tech bubble, inflation, AND the mentioned rate hikes are continuing to get worse which is taking more household income away from would be buyers. So I see your point that we should pump the brakes on a THE WORLD IS ENDING super crash nation wide, regional crashes are not entirely out of the question.

  15. Hello, I love your channel, and respect you. May I please give you my opinion on what you are missing from all your videos? The concept of "precedent". History is full of this, just like last 100 years in the market. Records are broken all the time, routinely. So to say "historical reference says housing market will not go down more than 20%" (paraphrasing you) is to ignore precedent. At any point in time, there can be new precedent, and from then on people will say "historical reference says housing market will not go down more than 50%" if it fell 50%, for example. Perhaps another way you can look at the data is to look at each time the housing market crashed, and then look how many "YEARS" it was set back. For example, 2008 crisis, causes housing prices to fall back to 2003 levels, etc. So then you look at prior, how many years? Then you get a mean, average, and max and min. Apply that to today, then you can see what could be likely. I believe housing prices could fall back to 2015-2017 levels, for example, based off history. What do you think? and thank you

  16. Why do people think boomers had it more accessible? Because so many of us live in large urban areas when we could be living in mid-sized or smaller cities in less trendy areas of the country.

    I'm in Canada myself, and if I had the option to move to a slightly smaller city for a significantly lower cost of living, I would do it. But it seems that in Canada, you live in the wilderness or a large urban area. There aren't many options in between.

  17. The average house price in the US is $428,000. Really?
    Guess what the average price is in NZ (conservatively) according to March 2022 data (region by region)….NZ$787,000! Which, taking into account the exchange rate at present, is 15% more expensive than the US average.
    Also, value for money is far, far, superior in the US housing market.

  18. 1981 is likely the worst possible comparison. We are barely answering the alarm of inflation with a two basis point rise at present. You need to compare current market conditions to that of the mid-late 70s. The mortgage rates rose from about 6% in 1977 to nearly 20% just five years later as an answer to stagflation. We are only now beginning to address similar conditions with a measly half a percent rise to the federal funds rate. If we raise interest rates in the next 5 years to those levels then you may have a more accurate comparison to 1981. Very misleading and dangerous to encourage buyers right now for what is likely the single greatest investment most viewers will make in a lifetime.

  20. So much more real estate disaster is on the way! My karma spells on all those who stole homes after 2008 are working! Praise be!!😄

  23. Excellent points! I'm one of those boomers you referenced. My wife and I bought our first house in Oct 1982 when we were in our early 20s. The house was in a less-than-desirable area and cost about $60K It was all we could afford. Our combined income was barely $20K. The mortgage rate was about 14%. Our P&I payment was over $700/mo, which was about $8500/year. That was 42% of our income. Taxes and insurance were on top of that. Oh yea, inflation was coming down from the double digits, but still pretty high. I know it's hard for many right now, including my kids and adult grandkids — and I feel for them — but we all had our hurdles in life.

  26. Some difference are taxes—not just property taxes, but all taxes being higher—insurance premiums have steadily gone up over the last 45 years while coverage has gotten worse, fuel and energy costs, consumption culture—many more families today have two or more vehicles than in 1981, along with many other unnecessary products and subscriptions—consumer debt is higher, margined investments and easy access poor decision making when it comes to investments, and a hyper-dependency on a price gouging healthcare system and pharmaceutical industry. There’s also a cultural problem today that might be even worse than the current tolerance for consumerism; entitlement.

  27. So one thing to consider is all the people who bought second and third homes while interest rates were low. I was one of them! And, like many, I rent it out through VRBO. You'd be shocked how many people I polled on the AirBnB subreddit that said they bought a rental property in the last year, and many people bought multiple properties. I think these people will be a big contributor to the crash. They are already panicking. Many vacation markets are now oversaturated with vacation rentals, and these people are not seeing the return that they did back in 2020. Even my rental is down 20% this year. Though the housing crash is in motion, I think investment properties getting unloaded will send it into a tailspin.

    That said, I do appreciate you digging your heals on this issue. You're just wrong on this one. 😉

  28. Will the Fed be able to slash rates and print money to save asset prices like last time? The financial crisis is what kicked QE into high gear. The Fed balance sheet increased 2.5x from Sep-Dec 2008. I don't see it happening again with inflation finally hitting consumer goods, but you never know how long we can commit to kicking the can down the road.

  30. I think the Housing prices will fall if demand goes down, there will always be Homes for sale in any type of Economy.
    Financial Institutions can only buy up so many homes before their Housing investments turn into diminishing returns.
    The American People are losing huge chunk of their Money to inflation, daily necessities such as Food, Utilities, and Gas are through the roof.
    Times were different in 20th century, one Man's income could run an entire Household, and there weren't many things to buy anyway. Today, we have all sorts of luxury goods and services we can buy and enjoy.
    Even if there is a shortage of Housing units, there is still a significant supply of Homes available in the Market, its not like we only have couple thousand Homes for sale. The only People who can afford to buy Homes right now at these mortgage rates are ones making 6 figure income, which accounts for only 5.4% of the US Population.
    And I am sure most of these People with Money are waiting for a market crash to happen, otherwise, all those Homes available for sale would be going off the Market quickly like they were back in 2020-21. But, Homes are staying on the Market longer, because People who can afford to pay higher mortgage rates are waiting for Prices to come down.
    Whatever the number of Homes available for sale are, if there are less and less willing buyers, the sellers have to reduce price, or sit on the Property or rent it out.
    We keep comparing 2020's to 1970's, and 1930's, when those two time periods were completely different. The number of available goods & services as well as the US Population and median incomes were drastically different in those time period, plus Interest rates were way higher, and there weren't as many Businesses in the Economy.
    Changing times changes Economies.

  32. Housing demand is high mainly because of all the housing as an investment crowd. If it stops being a good investment then the only people left to buy will be the ones needing a home to live in.

  33. I value your opinion and love your objective view. I gotta say though, I bought a house last year for an insane price (but I had to move to a specific are and I have four children), and my mortgage is nowhere near an all-time low percentage of my disposable income. I wonder if that graph includes both people who bought houses before this insane jump but have better wages (the low end) and all of us that bought houses recently and spend a large portion of our disposable income on our mortgage. That argument is only really valid for those that have bought houses in the last year or two exclusively.

    I also had to buy a car last year as mine broke down and became too expensive to fix. In hindsight, I should have just fixed it anyway, but I can't change that now. Between my insane mortgage payment, outrageous car payment, gas prices, food prices, and inflation, I am getting extremely worried about my ability to afford living. I make $110k/yr and that's the only reason I can even manage, but even I am being priced out. My son threw a rock at my windshield the other day, and without insurance, it costs $900 to replace! That is insane!

  35. Everything is overvalued and will all come back down cars property Rolex’s have already started I don’t think it’ll be a crash but a correction

  36. idk man I'm going to disagree with you on this one. While I do not see houses crashing to prepandemic levels, I also don't think the comparison can be made as easily. I don't know a single boomer that didn't live on one pay check, work the same job for 30+ years, had 5 kids, and a stay at home wife. Either they were really living life on the edge or the cost of living was a lot let. Who really knows, and it would take a lot more data to prove this point over the years.

  37. Everyone on the "no crash" argument has been saying the simple argument as low supply high demand=high prices. But right now we're seeing demand pull back in record numbers while inventory is shooting up and we still have foreclosures to get through and new homes being finished which is also at it's lowest levels of sales in the passed decade. So if we're going to base the argument of supply and demand is correcting plus the fact that people are maxing out credit cards and aren't paying on their student loans, once the dust settles and we're starting to see a market shift, once 1 house starts it's price cuts because no one can be approved for that price range, (because we live in a class society) the next will follow and like dominoes continue the cycle. Mind you CPI came back higher than the previous 2 months, interest rates will still continue to rise pulling demand out of the market while on a brink of a reccesion.

  38. Problem is that houses are NOT worth the asking price today, the price increase of the last two years were driven by low interest rates, pent up demand and excess cash flooding the market. Take that away and what do you get?

    Most importantly, people forget that if you don't have a job or are laid off because of the increasingly hostile economy, how do you pay a 3K mortgage? How can people justify discretionary spending?

    We're heading into a repeat of COVID times minus the stimulus, if you and those that employ you are not essential to the economy you should be concerned.

  39. I have been thinking about what you have been saying and what I have been arguing.
    I think you may be right on the prices staying high. I don’t think so, but I could be wrong.
    I’m still very bullish on a recession as bad or worse than 2008 by early 2024 as I have stated ad nauseoum.
    It’s very possible if that if we have a deflationary recession, house prices would not only remain high, but they would boom. A dollar devaluation so high that what it takes to buy a home simply goes through the roof. Ala Argentina or African nations with billion currency notes.
    I think the zombie corporation nation we exist in should lead to price drops of all kinds.
    I may have the artificial stimulation wrong on how it will lead to pricing dips. The prices may remain really high and people will just be squeezed out and able to afford less – Turkish Lira.

  40. I live in central Oregon and we have one on the worst housing markets in the country. It's almost always on top overvalued cities lists. We bought our house in 2012 for 135k and the people before us bought it in 2007 259k. We had it appraised in Nov 2019 for 345k. Zestimate has it 631k today. Even if the market drops 30%, it still puts it at normal growth for this area.

  41. I think ultimately what will cause the housing market to crash is the abuse of HELOC with the goal of making money. These are loans which are secured by the "increase in value" on their real estate that they "own"(usually still under mortgage), and have variable interest rates. From what I've heard, that is the primary way that "cash buyers" have been getting funds in order to acquire investment properties with the goal of renting them out. Now I believe that once interest rates make repayments of HELOCs near unbearable, it will induce increasingly more pressure to sell as these "investors" are left holding heavier and heavier bags until they can no longer afford to hold out in hopes of the market recovering. Almost everyone predicting "another 2008" is predicting that home prices will only go down a bit at which point they will go in to "buy the dip" at which point they hope will then go back up again, however what I think will happen is that this ends up creating a dead cat bounce, and only trapping people who didn't get caught in the initial market collapse and doubling the damage of those who thought they were smart by buying even more as it collapsed.

  42. Point of view from a professional home handyman: the average aged house is in a state of significant state of deterioration, the quality of new builds is on average lower than new build homes 40+ years ago. Irrespective of local land value, the physical buildings themselves are not worth anywhere near what the market is demanding. Another factor to indicate a coming housing price revaluation is inevitable.

  43. It will crash once people start losing jobs! I don't know why this is left out. Hyper inflation less buying will end up in massive lay offs! Then we will see huge supply vs demand! I don't know haw anyone comes up with different out comes it is elementary school level logic

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